The country recorded its highest annual average temperature in 2025, with the annual average reaching 23.33°C, as new climate data spanning three decades reveal a gradual warming trend that has become increasingly evident in recent years.
The findings are highlighted in the Climate Atlas of Bhutan (1996–2025): Climatology of Temperature and Rainfall, published by the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM). The atlas provides the country’s first comprehensive climate baseline, based on observations collected from 125 temperature stations and 98 rainfall stations across Bhutan.
The 30-year analysis shows that while temperatures have fluctuated from year to year, warmer conditions have become increasingly noticeable, particularly since the mid-2010s.
The atlas used a five-year moving average to analyse long-term trends, indicating a gradual shift towards warmer conditions following relatively cooler periods between the mid-2000s and around 2020.
An NCHM official said Bhutan’s climate patterns are strongly influenced by the country’s diverse topography, with elevation playing a major role in determining local temperatures. The southern foothills and low-lying valleys generally experience warmer conditions, while the high-altitude northern regions remain much colder.
According to the atlas, annual maximum temperatures range between 25°C and 30°C in southern Bhutan, while high-altitude northern areas record temperatures below 10°C. Temperature declines significantly with elevation, with daytime temperatures falling by around 4.76°C for every 1,000-metre increase in altitude and nighttime temperatures decreasing by around 5.13°C.
The warming trend has also been reflected in recent extreme weather events.
In 2025, several parts of the country experienced record temperatures and intense rainfall. Punakha recorded a peak temperature of 39.5°C, the highest temperature highlighted in the latest climate assessment.
Phuentsholing experienced 233 days with temperatures exceeding 30°C, reflecting prolonged periods of intense heat in the southern region.
Alongside the heat records, Bhutan also experienced significant rainfall during the year. Phuentsholing recorded the country’s highest annual rainfall, receiving 5,402 mm. The town also experienced a 24-hour rainfall event of 385 mm in 2025. The heavy rainfall contributed to an increased risk of landslides, with 17 potential landslide events recorded during the year.
However, climate conditions continue to vary considerably across the country. While southern Bhutan experienced high temperatures and heavy rainfall, Haa recorded 141 freezing days, and Gasa recorded 202 rainy days during the year.
Rainfall patterns remain difficult to predict
The Climate Atlas shows that Bhutan’s rainfall is largely influenced by the summer monsoon, which contributes about 73 percent of the country’s annual rainfall.
Rainfall is highest in southern Bhutan, where some areas receive between 4,000 mm and 6,000 mm annually. It gradually decreases towards the central and northern regions.
July remains the wettest month, with an average rainfall of 459.3 mm during the 1996–2025 period. The highest monthly rainfall recorded during the period reached 1,994.3 mm.
Despite these established seasonal patterns, predicting rainfall remains challenging because of the influence of global climate systems.
An NCHM official said climate drivers such as El Niño do not always produce the same effects on Bhutan’s rainfall. Previous strong El Niño years, including 1997–98 and 2015–16, resulted in different rainfall outcomes, demonstrating that the relationship between global climate patterns and local rainfall is complex.
Outlook points to warmer conditions
Climate outlooks indicate the possibility of El Niño conditions developing, along with a potential positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). While climate models suggest a higher likelihood of El Niño, its impact on Bhutan’s rainfall remains uncertain.
Temperature responses, however, are considered more predictable, with climate indicators pointing to a likelihood of warmer conditions.
NCHM officials said rising temperatures could affect climate-sensitive sectors, including agriculture, water resources, hydropower, infrastructure and disaster management.
They said climate forecasts are probabilistic and are intended to support early decision-making rather than provide certainty. Communities and institutions, they added, should use available climate information to prepare for potential impacts.
The Climate Atlas is expected to support climate-resilient planning by providing detailed information on temperature and rainfall patterns across different regions of Bhutan.
The report also highlights several limitations, including the need for longer climate records and further research into climate extremes such as heatwaves, droughts and intense rainfall events.
With three decades of climate observations now providing a clearer understanding of Bhutan’s climate patterns, officials said the focus will be on using scientific evidence to strengthen preparedness, adaptation and resilience across sectors.
Nidup Lhamo, Thimphu
