It is not that Bhutan has been unaware of the danger posed by glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). We have known about the threat for decades. We have studied our lakes, monitored glaciers, established early-warning systems and conducted mock drills. In recent years, we have learned even more about the scale and reach of the danger.
But perhaps the most important lesson now is this: we must prepare the people.
We know that the danger is not confined to Thorthormi Tsho, as most of us think. Recent scientific assessments have shown that areas such as Bumthang are also exposed to very high GLOF risks. New high-hazard lakes have been identified. More worrying still, at least 41 percent of buildings exposed to modelled GLOF impacts do not have access to existing early-warning coverage.
These findings should not create panic. They should create preparedness.
We cannot tell our people when the next GLOF will occur. We cannot say with certainty which lake will breach, when it will happen or precisely how a flood will behave. But we can ensure that when a warning comes, people know exactly what to do.
That is where our greatest effort must now go.
A warning system is useful only if the people receiving the warning understand it and know how to respond. A siren is not enough. A message on a telephone is not enough. Technology cannot save lives by itself. People save lives when they know where to go, when to move and what to do.
Every community living along vulnerable river basins should know its evacuation route. Every family should know the nearest safe location. Schools should regularly practise evacuation. Farmers, businesses and local leaders should understand the warning signals. Communities should know which bridges or roads may become dangerous and which routes provide safe alternatives.
And this knowledge cannot be given once and forgotten.
Preparedness must become a habit.
We should conduct drills not merely as official exercises but as community rehearsals for an emergency that we hope never comes. People should become familiar with the sound of an alarm, the meaning of a warning message and the actions expected of them. Local governments should know whom to account for, where vulnerable people are and how quickly communities can be moved to safety.
His Majesty The King has already placed great emphasis on preparedness, including mock drills and strengthening the country’s ability to respond to disasters. That leadership gives us both direction and responsibility.
We must now take preparedness beyond institutions and into every household.
There is also an understandable hesitation about frightening people with dangers whose timing we cannot predict. But there is a difference between creating fear and creating awareness. We should not tell people that disaster is coming. We should tell them that if it comes, they must be ready.
That is a message of confidence, not fear.
Bhutan cannot stop the glaciers from changing. We cannot control the mountains or command the rivers. But we can control how prepared we are.
We can strengthen early-warning systems, improve monitoring and protect critical infrastructure. We can make difficult decisions about construction and settlement in vulnerable areas. Above all, we can prepare our people so that a warning does not become a moment of confusion.
The greatest tragedy would not be that nature gives us no warning. It would be that we receive one and do not know what to do with it.
We have the science. We have the technology. We have the experience. And we have the leadership.
Now we must prepare the people.
Because when the mountains move, there may be no time for another meeting, another study or another plan. There will only be time to respond.
And the people who know what to do will have the best chance of surviving.
