Bhutan is bracing for an above-normal snowfall this winter, with precipitation levels for December, January, and February expected to exceed the seasonal average, according to the National Center for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM). In the short range, the NCHM forecasts snowfall in northern regions, high-altitude areas, and mountain passes between February 9 and 13, accompanied by light rain across the country from February 11 to 13. However, this precipitation is expected to be minimal.
Over the coming decades, Bhutan is projected to receive increasing precipitation across all seasons, including both summer and winter. While this suggests more snowfall in the highlands, rising winter temperatures will likely lead to reduced snow accumulation in mid-altitude areas such as Thimphu and Paro.
Historically, Bhutan’s snowfall is concentrated in the northern high-altitude regions of the Himalayas, with winter snowfall occurring from December to February.
In February 2023, Bhutan witnessed one of its heaviest snowfalls on record, covering even low-lying areas like Punakha and Trongsa. A similar event in March 2017 wreaked havoc on fruit trees in Thimphu, Haa, and Paro, as they had already begun flowering.
However, Thimphu and Paro saw no snowfall last year. Lingzhi recorded the highest snowfall in March 2023, reaching 24.83 cm, but by December, it had received only 8.7 cm. Thrumshingla, which recorded 6.1 cm on February 3, 2024, had received only 2 cm in the same month the previous year. Laya, another high-altitude region, saw 2.03 mm of snowfall in early January 2024, compared to 1 mm in late February 2023.
Winter precipitation in Bhutan is subject to significant intra-seasonal variability, meaning that snowfall patterns can fluctuate greatly even within the same winter season. This variability is influenced by a variety of factors such as changes in atmospheric pressure, wind patterns, and temperature anomalies, which can cause sporadic snowfall events at different intervals throughout the winter months.
As a result, predicting snowfall accurately for Bhutan requires careful monitoring of short- and medium-term weather trends, as opposed to relying solely on long-term seasonal outlooks. Short-range forecasts, which typically provide predictions for up to a week in advance, are essential for tracking sudden changes in weather conditions, such as the onset of snowstorms, temperature shifts, and precipitation patterns in specific regions.
Medium-range forecasts, which span one to two weeks, provide a more comprehensive view of potential weather events, allowing meteorologists to assess the likelihood of sustained snowfall or dry spells across different parts of the country. These forecasts help account for intermittent and localized snowfall events, particularly in high-altitude and northern regions where the impact of weather systems is more pronounced.
Given the complex and dynamic nature of winter weather, short- and medium-range forecasting allows for more real-time accuracy, as it captures immediate atmospheric conditions and trends, rather than relying on broader seasonal predictions that may not fully capture the fluctuations in weather. This enables the National Center for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM) to issue more precise snowfall predictions, which are especially crucial for regions with high-altitude terrain like Bhutan, where even small variations in weather patterns can result in significant differences in snowfall accumulation.
By continuously updating forecasts based on these shorter timeframes, the NCHM is better equipped to provide more reliable and timely snowfall predictions, ultimately assisting local authorities, farmers, and communities in preparing for winter conditions—from road closures and travel disruptions to safety measures for livestock and crops.
The World Meteorological Organization has declared 2024 as the hottest year on record, with global temperatures temporarily reaching 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Bhutan has not been spared from this global heat surge.
The highest temperature ever recorded in Bhutan was 43°C in Gelephu on July 25, 1996. In 2024, Gelephu reached 40°C in both May and September, while Phuntsholing hit 39.5°C in May and Sipsoo recorded 37°C.
Scientific studies indicate that Bhutan has been experiencing continuous warming since the 1960s, with nighttime temperatures rising faster than daytime temperatures. Data from 1996 to 2024 confirms that warming has accelerated between 1991 and 2020, driven by greenhouse gas emissions and socio-economic development.
As Bhutan continues to feel the effects of global climate change, climate models predict that northern high mountain regions will experience warmer days and nights in the coming years. This warming trend is a direct result of global temperature increases, driven by rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The implications for Bhutan’s northern high-altitude areas are significant, with higher temperatures influencing both precipitation patterns and snowfall distribution.
In terms of precipitation, these high-altitude regions—which include some of Bhutan’s tallest mountains and remote areas—are forecast to see an increase in total precipitation. While this could be beneficial in terms of replenishing water sources and maintaining river flows, it also suggests more extreme weather events. The higher precipitation could manifest not just in the form of snow but also as intense rainfall, which could lead to the possibility of flash floods and landslides in certain areas, especially in the spring and summer months.
Meanwhile, the mid-altitude regions, including Bhutan’s capital city Thimphu and Paro Valley, are expected to be more vulnerable to the effects of warming winter temperatures. In these areas, the overall temperature rise is likely to result in less snow accumulation during the winter months. Historically, Bhutan’s mid-altitude areas have experienced significant snowfall in the colder months, but with higher winter temperatures, it is likely that more precipitation will fall as rain instead of snow, particularly in lower altitude areas.
This trend may seem less dramatic in the short term but will have long-term consequences. Thimphu and Paro, regions known for their cultural and historical significance, could experience changing agricultural patterns, as farmers and local communities adjust to the shorter snow seasons and the shift from snow to rain. In addition, snowmelt patterns will likely change. Snow that would typically accumulate in the mid-altitudes and provide a steady water source throughout the spring will melt more quickly, resulting in earlier and more intense spring runoff. This could lead to a reduction in water availability later in the season, affecting agricultural production, hydropower generation, and local water supplies.
For the northern high mountain areas, while the increased precipitation could result in more snowfall, it could also pose challenges. The combination of warmer temperatures and more frequent precipitation could lead to increased snowmelt, which in turn might accelerate glacial retreat. Bhutan’s glaciers, which feed many of the country’s rivers, are already retreating due to rising temperatures. If this trend continues, it could lead to flood risks in the short term and water scarcity issues in the long term as the glaciers shrink and their ability to regulate river flow diminishes.
Climate change is no longer a distant threat—it is unfolding in Bhutan now. According to the Climate Projection Report of Bhutan 2024, based on insights from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), both maximum and minimum temperatures have risen significantly in recent decades (1991–2020).
Notably, the northern and western regions of Bhutan have experienced the most dramatic increases in surface air temperatures, underscoring the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies in the years to come.
By Sangay Rabten from Thimphu
