Guideline specifies four clusters, namely, Economic, Social, Security and Governance Clusters
The draft “Planning Guidelines for formulation of Long Term Perspective Plan (2024-2034) and 13th Five Year Plan (Feb 2024- Feb 2029) for Economic Cluster,” has identified 10 National Key Performance Indicators (KPIs).
According to the draft, the guideline is for the preparation of National Programs under the four clusters, namely, Economic, Social, Security and Governance Clusters. The draft also underlines that the KPIs set the overall direction to guide the socio-economic development efforts over the next 10 years towards realizing the Royal Vision of “Developed Bhutan”.
The national KPIs are formulated based on the principle of 3Ps i.e. Prosperity, People and Progress.
As per the draft, one of the National KPIs is to increase GDP from USD 2.5 billion (bn)to USD 5bn by 2029, and USD 10bn by 2034. However, this KPI has its terms and conditions; which are ensuring the growth are sustainable, and should not lead to overheating or economic crises. It also calls for strategies to escape the middle income trap.
Another National KPI is increasing GDP per capita from USD 3400 to USD 4,256 by 2029, and above USD 12000 by 2034. The terms and conditions of this KPI is the need for the KPI to be as per threshold specified by the World Bank
Other National KPIs according to the draft are to create full employment (97.5%) with quality jobs by 2027; income of the bottom 40% quadrupled by 2030 and by 2030 reverses the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) from 1.9 to 2.1.
The guideline also states that by 2030, life expectancy be increased to 75 years and 80% of Bhutanese below 65 years provided with required Pre Employment and Continuing Education and Trainings suited to 21st century economy needs.
“By 2030, Bhutan ranked among the top 20 Countries on Trust, Credibility and Integrity indices. By 2030, ensure safe and livable human settlement in all 20 Dzongkhags with Thimphu Paro Capital Region ranked among 20 top livable cities in the world and beginning 2025, satisfaction with public service delivery rated above 4.5 (0-5) for each service on annual basis,” are other National KPIs as per the draft guidelines.
Meanwhile the draft guideline states that while Bhutan has followed a five year socio-economic development planning cycle since the first five year plan in 1961, the approach now is to set the overall direction to guide our socio-economic development efforts over the next 10 years that spans from 2024 to 2034 towards realizing the Royal Vision of “Developed Bhutan.”
“The long-term plan will contain the National KPIs, Cluster KPIs and National Programs that span over five years.”
It is also mentioned that within the long term period, the 13th Plan will be from February 2024 to February 2029 aligned to the term of the next government. In addition to the national programs, the 13th Plan will contain agency and local government programs.
“Resources for the 13th Plan will be divided between national programs which are national interventions that directly contribute to achieving the National KPIs, and local government and agency programs which are for meeting the more routine and immediate needs of public services.”
The draft guideline has also specified that a long term outlook of macro-fiscal framework will be undertaken based on the demand on financial resources required to achieve the National KPIs, while medium term fiscal outlooks based on projected resource potentials will be worked out. The final fiscal framework will be a careful calibration of the demand and supply figures.
It is also underlined that the objective of the economic cluster is to build a USD 10bn economy founded on creativity, innovation and sustainability resulting in GDP per capita of USD 12,000 and high-end jobs for all by 2034. This cluster also has its own KPIs.
“The KPIs measure the success or failure of the cluster objective. Where necessary, KPI Terms and Conditions, which define the non-negotiable standards and requirements that must be met, have been specified for strict adherence,” the guideline says.
Some of the KPIs of the economic cluster are; beginning 2024, annually create 1000 jobs in digital economy; increase share of digital economy to GDP from x to 10%; by 2029, reduce Trade Balance deficit from 21% to x% of GDP and by the same year increase share of manufacturing to GDP from 6% in 2021 to 15% and increase Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from NU 43.3 to Nu 100bn.
There are KPI terms and conditions, too. For instance in the FDI component the terms and conditions are generate revenue to the Government; high end and high paying jobs for Bhutanese and 20% of FDI share to be in the digital and knowledge sectors.
Similarly, for the Cluster KPI to increase annual average household income from USD 5000 to USD 60,000, by 2034, the terms and conditions are ensuring that every household earns no less than USD 12,000.
The draft guideline also contains aspects such as formulation of strategies and programs and monitoring and evaluation framework amongst others. This draft was released in November 2022.
Sherab Dorji from Thimphu