Bhutan is likely to experience below-normal winter rainfall and above-normal temperatures during the December 2025 to February 2026 (DJF 2025/26) season, according to the latest regional and international climate outlooks issued under the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-33) and other global forecasting centres.
Seasonal forecasting and climate prediction are increasingly recognised as critical tools for climate adaptation and disaster risk management, particularly in the face of growing climate variability and climate change. To support regional preparedness, Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) were established to generate consensus-based climate outlooks for countries sharing similar climatic conditions.
In South Asia, the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF)—established in 2010—focuses on climate information relevant to countries influenced by the South Asian monsoon, including Bhutan.
According to SASCOF-33 assessments, weak La Niña conditions currently prevail over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Global climate models indicate a moderate to high probability (around 62 percent) that La Niña conditions may persist through the early part of the DJF 2025/26 season, before transitioning toward neutral ENSO conditions thereafter.
Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is presently in a negative phase, though forecasts suggest these conditions are likely to weaken and move toward neutral IOD conditions during the winter season.
“These large-scale climate drivers play an important role in shaping winter rainfall and temperature patterns across South Asia, including the Himalayan region,” climate experts noted.
The SASCOF-33 consensus outlook indicates that winter precipitation is most likely to be below normal across large parts of South Asia, particularly in the northern, northwestern, northeastern regions and along the Himalayan foothills, which includes Bhutan.
Some localized areas in the western and southern parts of South Asia may receive above-normal rainfall, while other regions are expected to experience near-normal conditions.
Minimum temperatures are expected to remain near normal across much of South Asia, with some variation over high-altitude Himalayan areas. Maximum temperatures are projected to be above normal across much of the region, including Bhutan, though some central and Himalayan foothill areas may experience near- or below-normal daytime temperatures.
International Climate Centres Echo Similar Signals for Bhutan
Forecasts from multiple international and regional climate centres broadly align with the SASCOF outlook for Bhutan.
WMO Global Producing Centres (GPCs) project below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures. International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) forecasts drier and warmer-than-average winter conditions. Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) indicates below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) both suggest below-normal winter rainfall. Bhutan’s National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM), using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT), projects near-normal rainfall, above-normal maximum temperatures, and near-normal minimum temperatures.
Based on the combined assessment of SASCOF-33 and multiple international forecast products, most precipitation indicators point toward below-normal rainfall. The maximum temperature is likely to be above normal, while the minimum temperature steers near normal to slightly above normal, and both ENSO and IOD likely to remain neutral during the core winter months.
Given the high day-to-day variability of winter weather in the Himalayan region, meteorological authorities have advised that seasonal forecasts should be used alongside extended-range, medium-range, and daily weather forecasts, as well as official advisories.
“Seasonal outlooks provide a broad planning signal, but operational decisions should always be guided by shorter-range forecasts,” climate experts emphasized.
The winter outlook holds implications for agriculture, hydropower generation, water resources, forest fire risk, and public health, underscoring the importance of timely climate information for national preparedness and resilience planning.
Tashi Namgyal
From Thimphu
