Migration and its consequences would be challenges to the success of the MoAL’s plans
The Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (MoAL) has released its 13th Five-Year Plan, aiming to increase the sector’s GDP contribution from Nu. 31 billion (B) in 2023 to Nu. 50 B by 2029. The plan adopts a two-pronged approach: upscaling large-scale commercialization to enhance economies of scale and building resilience among smallholder farmers to ensure sustainability. It “emphasizes focused, concentrated, and targeted interventions, aligning programs and activities with its objectives through commodity prioritization.”
While the plan comprehensively addresses the challenges and opportunities within the sector and incorporates assumptions, a crucial aspect of development—arable land—could pose a significant challenge for the Ministry. This is further complicated by the rise in fallow land (satong) and empty houses (gungtong). The Ministry has acknowledged these issues, stating that “the agrifood sector in Bhutan faces constraints associated with increasing labor shortages primarily driven by rural-urban migration, low levels of farm mechanization, and limited market access and value addition, among others.” Additionally, the sector’s sustainability and productivity are threatened by climate change, pests and diseases, the influx of cheap imports, and challenges posed by wildlife.
Though the plan mentions rejuvenating fallow lands, it does not outline specific strategies to achieve this. In June 2024, the Good Governance Committee (GGC) of the National Council (NC) presented a report revealing that nearly 6,000 households across the country are classified as gungtong, with 75% located in the six eastern dzongkhags. Trashigang has the highest percentage (24.53%), followed by Pemagatshel (14.23%), Trashiyangtse (13.43%), and Mongar (11.22%). Conversely, districts like Thimphu (0%), Paro (0.05%), Gasa (0.02%), and Chukha (0.94%) recorded the lowest numbers of gungtong.
The report also highlighted that between 2010 and 2019, the total cultivated area decreased by over 28,000 acres (10%), with chuzhing reduced by 29,566.42 acres (38.4%) and kamzhing by almost 14,000 acres (8.13%). The most significant reasons for leaving land fallow include irrigation problems, human-wildlife conflicts, and labor shortages. The committee found that people migrate for various reasons such as employment, education, family relocation, marriage, and health. It is projected that by 2037, half of the country’s population will reside in urban areas.
In 2019, 8,957.81 acres of wetland were left fallow, resulting in an opportunity cost of 14,322.5 metric tons of rice per year. Moreover, between 2017 and 2022, both the area under paddy cultivation and its production declined by over 50%. Consequently, rice imports increased significantly from Nu. 1.7 billion in 2017 to Nu. 2.6 billion in 2022, and further to Nu. 3 billion in 2023. The GGC chairman remarked, “This has significantly impacted our goal of achieving rice self-sufficiency, which decreased to 25% in 2022 from 40.8% in 2018.”
Although the MoAL’s 13th FYP has proposed addressing labor shortages by bringing in external labor and containing human-wildlife conflicts, the availability of land and Bhutanese people on-site is paramount to achieving the Ministry’s objectives. The GGC also proposed ten recommendations to address rising gungtong and satong, including balanced regional development, policies for converting fallow lands, flexible use of wetlands, crop and livestock insurance schemes, and program support. The committee emphasized the critical need for balanced development to reduce fallow lands and gungtong, noting that socioeconomic imbalances are evident from disparities in poverty and migration patterns across the country.
The chairman noted that while migration cannot be halted, socioeconomic challenges like poverty, satong, and gungtong can be alleviated by creating economic opportunities and enhancing infrastructure and services, especially in rural areas. The committee also recommended formulating policies for converting fallow lands, stressing that the increasing dependence on food imports and the growing amount of fallow land could threaten the country’s food security.
It is uncertain if these recommendations were considered in the plan’s formulation. If not, it highlights a lack of coordination. If the MoAL argues that these recommendations are beyond its scope, it still bears responsibility, as land is essential for agriculture.
A population projection by the Ministry estimates that by 2034, Bhutan’s population will reach approximately 837,288. Considering the current per capita consumption, the demand for cereals will rise from 162,931 metric tons (MT) in 2021 to 289,748 MT by 2034. Similarly, the demand for vegetables, pulses, fruits, roots and tubers, mustard, and spices will increase from 124,116 MT to 140,160 MT. The need for milk is projected to grow from 43,828 MT to 73,984 MT, and meat consumption is expected to rise from 2,798 MT to 4,095 MT. Additionally, the demand for eggs is forecasted to grow significantly, from 86 million eggs to 174 million eggs annually. This calls for a substantial increase in agricultural production to keep pace with the rising food demand while also enhancing farmers’ incomes.
Notably absent from the plan is consideration of the upcoming Gelephu Mindfulness City (GMC), where the population is expected to increase significantly. The residents of GMC will also need to be fed.
The plan includes specific targets, such as increasing agri-commodity exports to Nu. 6 billion and achieving self-sufficiency in key commodities by 2029—30% in rice, 80% in vegetables, 50% in chicken, 60% in pork, 62% in essential vegetables, and maintaining 100% self-sufficiency in egg production. Achieving these targets would help reduce the trade deficit and the outflow of convertible currency and Indian rupees. According to the Bhutan Trade Statistics’ 2nd Quarter 2024 report, released this year by the Department of Revenue and Customs, the country imported vegetable products worth Nu. 2 billion.
Bhutan also imported semi-milled or wholly milled rice, whether or not polished or glazed, worth Nu. 0.8015B, meat and edible meat offal worth Nu. 0.1358B, and dairy products such as birds’ eggs, natural honey, and edible products of animal origin worth Nu. 0.5872B.
By Sherab Dorji, Thimphu
