Top trends redefining global trade in 2026 – UNCTAD

Global economic growth is expected to remain sluggish through 2026, limiting trade, investment, and policy options for developing countries. UNCTAD projects 2.6 per cent global growth in 2025–2026, with developing economies (excluding China) slowing slightly to 4.2 per cent. Major economies are losing momentum: the US at 1.5 per cent, China at 4.6 per cent, and Europe showing modest demand despite limited fiscal support. Slower growth weakens export demand, tightens finance, and raises exposure to shocks, especially for commodity-dependent economies. Policy uncertainty also discourages long-term investment, constraining infrastructure and industrial financing. Developing countries will need stronger regional integration, trade diversification, and expanded digital and services strategies to enhance resilience.
The 14th WTO Ministerial Conference (MC14) in Yaoundé will occur amid geopolitical tensions and fragmented trade governance. For developing countries, priorities include reforming the dispute settlement system, restoring the Appellate Body, and preserving Special and Differential Treatment (SDT) to support industrialization and structural transformation. Key issues include agriculture and fisheries, e-commerce and digital trade, potential incorporation of the Investment Facilitation for Development Agreement (IFDA), and trade–climate interactions such as sustainable subsidies and eco-labelling. MC14 outcomes will shape global trade governance and developing countries’ ability to achieve inclusive growth.
Tariffs are increasingly used strategically, with US-led hikes in 2025 raising global tariffs unevenly—a trend likely to continue in 2026. Geopolitics, climate policies, and technological change are accelerating global value chain reconfigurations. Firms are shifting from cost-driven offshoring to risk-aware strategies, including supplier diversification, near-shoring, and vertical integration. Automation and AI reduce labor-cost advantages, prompting relocation. With nearly two-thirds of trade occurring within value chains, these shifts are reshaping routes and hubs. Diversification can boost resilience but may lower efficiency and slow trade growth. Developing countries with strong infrastructure, skilled labor, and stable policies can attract investment, while peripheral economies risk marginalization without upgrades in logistics, skills, and investment frameworks.
Services are the fastest-growing component of global trade. Services are essential across sectors, providing over 70 per cent of global intermediate inputs. Digitalization has boosted tradability, with digitally deliverable services now accounting for more than half of services exports. However, a significant digital divide remains. Meanwhile, digital trade restrictions are increasing, potentially limiting access and growth opportunities. WTO decisions on electronic commerce at MC14 will be pivotal in shaping the rules and ensuring inclusive participation in services trade. Ensuring equitable digital integration will be crucial.
South–South trade has become a major engine of global trade growth. Between 1995 and 2025, South–South merchandise exports expanded from about US$0.5 trillion to US$6.8 trillion. Today, 57 per cent of developing-country exports go to other developing economies, driven largely by Asia’s regional value chains, particularly in high- and medium-technology manufacturing.
In 2026, international agreements on fisheries, biodiversity, oceans, and water resources will move into implementation. Enhanced climate pledges by over 100 countries signal a shift toward low-carbon growth. COP31 in Türkiye will focus on financing the energy transition and ensuring a just shift away from fossil fuels. Carbon-related regulations, including the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism becoming fully operational, will reshape market access and competitiveness, affecting developing countries and LDCs. Trade in clean energy and environmental technologies is expected to grow rapidly, making access to green finance and technology critical.
Critical mineral markets enter 2026 with lower prices following rapid supply expansion and slower demand growth. While this eases costs for clean energy, it risks discouraging new investment, which remains subdued. Many developing countries depend on imports to meet basic needs while relying on agricultural exports for livelihoods, underscoring the need for open trade and investment in resilient domestic agriculture.
Finally, trade regulations are tightening. Since 2020, around 18,000 new discriminatory trade measures have been introduced, with technical regulations and standards affecting two-thirds of world trade. Climate, social, and security-related measures add compliance costs, disproportionately affecting smaller exporters. More flexible global rules and targeted technical assistance will be essential to ensure that trade remains inclusive in 2026 and beyond.